雷击火发生预报的研究进展

彭玉娴; 田晓瑞; 李思薇; 司莉青; 王明玉

doi:10.12356/j.2096-8884.2024-0015

雷击火发生预报的研究进展

doi: 10.12356/j.2096-8884.2024-0015

中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与自然保护研究所，国家林业草原火灾监测预警与防控工程技术研究中心，北京100091

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划资助（2023YFC3006803）

详细信息

作者简介:
彭玉娴：E-mail：284587487@qq.com

通讯作者:
E-mail：tianxr@caf.ac.cn

中图分类号: S718.5
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- 文章访问数: 20
- HTML全文浏览量: 9
- PDF下载量: 1
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-03-01
- 录用日期: 2024-04-30

A Review of Recent Advances in Lightning Fire Prediction

Ecology and Nature Conservation Institute, Chinese Academy of Forestry, National Forestry and Grassland Fire Monitoring, Early Warning and Prevention Engineering Technology Research Center, Beijing 100091, China

摘要

摘要: 雷击火是最主要的自然火，也是全球植被过火面积的主要形成因子。闪电成因比较复杂，因此很难准确预测闪电和雷击火发生。随着对闪电监测能力的提高，雷击火发生预报在林火管理中逐渐得到应用。雷击火发生预报一般采用统计回归模型或机器学习方法，包括逻辑回归模型、随机森林模型、广义线性模型等。本文从雷击火的驱动因子、闪电特征和预报方法3个方面总结相关研究进展，重点综述雷击火的驱动因子和发生预报方法。结合当前雷击火预报技术中存在的问题，总结了未来的研究方向。今后需要针对不同生态区的可燃物特征和雷击火发生特点，发展满足不同管理需求的雷击火发生预测模型，提高雷击火发生的预测能力。
- 雷击火 /
- 驱动因子 /
- 预测模型 /
- 闪电特征
Abstract: Lightning fires are the most common natural fires, which is the main cause for burned areas on global vegetation. The lightning fire occurrence is influenced by various factors, so it is difficult to predict accurately. Its prediction has been gradually applied in wildfire management with the improvement of lightning monitoring capabilities. Statistical regression model and machine learning methods are popularly used in lightning fire prediction, including logical regression, random forest, generalized linear, etc. This paper summarized recent research advances from three aspects, such as drivers, lightning characteristics, and prediction methods, and elaborates on the driving factors and forecasting models. The future researches were proposed incorporating with the current problems in lightning fire prediction. It is necessary to develop prediction models to satisfy various management needs according to fuel characteristics and lightning fire occurrences in different ecological zones, so as to improve the prediction ability of lightning fire occurrence.
- lightning fire /
- drivers /
- prediction model /
- lightning characteristics

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参考文献(57)

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