气候变暖及大尺度气候波动对全球林火与森林碳排放的影响

胡源; 赵凤君; 陈锋; 舒立福

doi:10.12356/j.2096-8884.2021-0004

气候变暖及大尺度气候波动对全球林火与森林碳排放的影响

doi: 10.12356/j.2096-8884.2021-0004

胡源^1, ,,
赵凤君²,
陈锋³,
舒立福²

1.
北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院，北京 100875
2.
中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与自然保护研究所，北京 100091
3.
北京林业大学生态与自然保护学院，北京 100083

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(31971667)

详细信息

作者简介:
胡源：E-mail: 201821490021@mail.bnu.edu.cn

通讯作者:
E-mail: 201821490021@mail.bnu.edu.cn

中图分类号: S757
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-01-24
- 网络出版日期: 2021-10-22
- 刊出日期: 2021-10-30

Impacts of Global Warming and Large-scale Climate Fluctuation on Forest Fires and Forest Carbon Emissions

1.
College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875
2.
Institute of Forest Ecology, Environment and Nature Conservation, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
3.
School of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China

摘要

摘要: 森林在全球碳循环过程中起着重要作用。而火是干扰森林的重要因子。随着全球变暖日益显著、极端气候事件增加，热浪、干旱以及大尺度气候波动等造成的森林火灾频率和强度不断增加，对全球森林生态系统碳循环产生了重大影响。研究气候变暖对林火和碳排放的影响，对提高生态环境的管理水平和可持续发展有重要意义。文中简述气候变暖对林火动态和森林碳循环的影响，以及火灾造成的损失，分析大尺度气候波动与林火发生的关系，最后，预测和讨论了未来气候变化情景下的火灾发展趋势，主要结论如下：1）气候变暖和干旱会导致林火发生频率和过火面积增加、强度增强；北半球和温带地区火险期提前、火险季节长度延长；森林碳排放量增加；森林火灾不仅直接造成森林面积锐减、污染大气环境、影响生物地球化学循环，甚至还给国家和人民来带巨大的经济和生命损失。2）大尺度气候波动与林火动态有非常密切的联系：与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO）相关的太平洋海面温度（Sea Surface Temperature, SST）异常的空间分布可能受太平洋年代际涛动（Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO）调控，它通过与ENSO同相（重叠）或异相（抵消）来调节ENSO的影响。ENSO和PDO都与降水、温度和干旱严重程度密切相关，极大增加了火灾的风险、频率和过火面积；北大西洋年代际涛动（Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, AMO）主要影响北半球的温度和降水，温暖的AMO将导致更高的温度、森林火灾次数和年林火面积；北极涛动（Arctic Oscillation, AO）主要影响欧亚大陆和北美大陆北部的气温和降水，AO处于正相位时，气温升高，环境干燥，会增加北半球中高纬度地区的火灾发生频率。3）未来气候情景下，不仅北半球会变得更加干旱和温暖，全球的森林火险指数和火灾数量也都有增加趋势。由于气候变化和人类活动的复杂性，这种趋势还存在很大不确定性，因此还需深入研究气候变化对林火关系的影响机理，以加强人类对火—气候现状的认识。
- 气候变暖 /
- 林火 /
- 大尺度气候波动 /
- 碳排放
Abstract: Forest contributes to a significant part of global carbon cycling, with fire as an essential disturbance. The frequency and intensity of forest fires have increased with the increased global temperature and extreme climate events, specifically heatwaves, droughts and large-scale climate fluctuations, which has significantly affected the carbon cycle of global forest ecosystems. It is important that comprehending the impact of warming on forest fires and carbon emissions, which leads to improved ecological and environmental management and sustainability. In this paper, it was summarized that the impacts of global warming and large-scale climate oscillations on forest fire dynamics and carbon cycle changes , where fire-related losses were also discussed. The trends of fires under future climate scenarios of climatic change were predicted as well. The main conclusions were as follows: 1) Global warming and associated drought would increase fire frequency, burned areas and fire intensity; Northern high latitudes and temperate regions, were found with earlier fire potential periods longer fire seasons, meanwhile forests have provided more carbon. Forest fires not only directly led to forest losses, atmosphere pollution and unbalanced biogeochemical cycles, but also astdonicing economic and life losses. 2) Large-scale climate fluctuations have profound effects on forest fire dynamics, specifically the Pacific SST (Sea Surface Temperature) anomalies associated with ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) may be regulated by PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) while PDO modulated the impacts of ENSO by being in phase (overlap) or out of phase (offset) with ENSO. Both ENSO and PDO were closely teleconnected with precipitation, temperature, and drought severity, which have significantly increased fire potential, fire frequency and burned area. AMO(Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation) has influenced temperatures and precipitations in the Northern Hemisphere. A warmer AMO with higher temperatures wouldgenerate more forest fires and burned areas. AO (Arctic Oscillation) has shown impacts on the temperatures and precipitations in Eurasia and the northern part of North America. When AO was in a positive phase, high temperatures accompanied by low moistures would increase the fire frequencies in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. 3) Generally, warming and possible drought would result in higher fire risks and more forest fires in the future. It is still uncertain that the accurate trends of prediction since high complexity of climate change and human impacts. Therefore, more researches are needed to understand the mechanism connecting climatic change and forest fire.d forest fire.isk and more forest fires. Due to the high complexity of climate change and human impacts, predicting this trend with accuracy is still highly uncertain. Therefore, more researches are needed to understand the mechanism connecting climatic change and forest fire.
- global warming /
- forest fire /
- large-scale climate fluctuations /
- carbon emissions

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